11 July 2010 Al shabaab Terror Attacks in Uganda

IN the United States, it was September 11. In Uganda, it was July 11. In the US, al-Qaeda was to blame. In Uganda, fingers are pointing at the Al Shabaab. Both the terror groups are linked and have bases in Somalia and elsewhere.

What is clear is that the Uganda government knew it was Al Shabaab’s target well before the Sunday twin bomb blasts. One was at the Ethiopian Restaurant in Kabalagala, another at the Kyadondo Rugby Club. Both had by mid-week resulted in 76 deaths. Origin of Al Shabaab

The Al Shabaab is an Arabic word meaning ‘the Youth’. It emerged as a youth militia of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The ICU was founded between 2000 and 2003 as an umbrella organisation of Islamic Sharia (courts) which was also known by different names such as the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC) and Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC).

Overtime, the SCIC or SICC was used in reference to the Islamic leadership of the organisation. While Islamic Courts was on the other hand used for the movement as a whole. Somalis have a long tradition of Islamic Courts. But the new brand — the ICU — first emerged in the 1990s in response to state collapse in Somalia. It was initially known as the Sharia Implementation Council and was heavily influenced by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. Because of state collapse, it became a defacto government, an enforcer of law and order.

Aweys was a respected colonel in the Somali army during the regime of Mohammed Siad Barre until 1991, when he rebelled and joined Hussein Mohammed Farah Aideed.

Aideed was the most well known Somali warlord largely blamed for the break down of the Somali society after the collapse of the Barre regime.

Amid the stateless Somali, Aweys began building the Islamic courts in the mid-to late 1990s and soon he became known as a radical militant. He later assumed chairmanship the Shura Council of the ICU. The Shura was the parliament and was in charge of all decision making.

Another member of the umbrella organisation and current President of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia is Sheikh Shraiff Sheikh Ahmed. He was considered a moderate figure. He became the chairman of the inner leadership circle of the SICC in 2004. The Transitional Federal Government was an effort to restore the state in Somaila. But it began to oppose the ICU as early as 2004. The transition government then headed by Abdiqasim Salad Hassan had been formed in 2000 as a result of a peace process in Arta, Djibouti.

Even when, the TFG replaced the transitional national government in 2004, but the ICU continued to oppose it as well. The TFG remained based in Nairobi, while the ICU controlled Somalia and even took over power in Mogadishu for six months until February 2006 when Ethiopia invaded Somalia and ejected it.

The reason the ICU was removed was because the US and Ethiopia considered it an Islamist threat with links to the Taliban in Afghanistan. The invasion pushed ICU from Mogadishu, scattering and joining the population especially in southern Somalia.Aweys fled to Eritrea in 2007 and formed a rebel group — The Alliance for the Re — Liberation of Somalia (ARS).

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed also fled and spent a short time in Kenya under captivity. He later left for Eritrea to join Aweys under unclear circumstances. In Eritrea, Sheikh Sharif became a founding member of the ARS. The ARS later split into two factions —the ARS—Asmara led by Aweys and the ARS — Djibouti led by Sheikh Sharif. Due to lack of resources and legitimacy, the TFG that had over stayed in Kenya, had moved to Baidoa, near the Ethiopian border in 2006.

Core Al shabaab

The over throw of the ICU did not mean the overthrow of the Al Shabaab. Although it was originally a special armed unit of the ICU, the group did not go into exile with the ICU leaders.

It remained inside Somalia and under the command of Aden Hashi Ayro, a very close ally of Aweys. Ayro was trained in Afghanistan and had connections with other extremist groups in Somalia such as the Al-Itihaad in the 1990s.

He was killed by US forces in an air strike in May 2008 but the group remained and maintained contacts with Aweys and continued to mobilise clandestinely inside Somalia.

Current problem

The problem of Somalia is not just the Al Shabaab. It is about clan-based politics and how power and resources are distributed. It is about regional competing interests ranging from trade, power and religion. It is about the failure of the international community to construct a meaningful dialogue and to reconstruct Somalia. It is also about radical extremist groups claiming to represent Somalia who have instead hijacked important aspects of society.

Other factors include the meddling of neighboring states such as Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea. And also the involvement of states across the Gulf of Aden to further different agendas. The problem of Somalia is also about unregulated trade. The ineffective counter-terrorism measures by western powers including the US are also one of the reasons.

But mainly, the opposition to the leadership of the TFG and Ethiopia in particular are at the core of the conflict.

The Eritrea- Ethiopia border dispute has driven the two countries in a proxy war inside Somalia by supporting opposing Somali groups.

Ethiopia has an internal war against the Ogaden and the Oromo and wants a puppet regime in Somalia to minimise threats from these groups. The groups have bases inside Somalia and traditionally received support from Somali regimes that were not friendly to Ethiopia.

Terror in Somalia

Since the launch of war against terror, the US and western powers have identified terrorist threats inside Somalia and are working through friendly countries in the region to minimise those threats.

But most Somalis deeply oppose foreign intervention and see the TFG as a foreign backed government which makes any involvement of other countries difficult. Internal opposition to foreigners, especially the Ethiopians take two forms. The first is that a core group of Somali nationals based in Mogadishu do not want the war torn city to be under the control of any body else, but themselves.

These Somalis are very influential and are at the core of the armed opposition. The second group is the opportunistic elements. These are taking advantage of chaos, lawlessness and war to engage in illegal activities for a living. It does not matter whether they are in the diaspora or inside Somalia.

Why opposition to Uganda?

There is a conflict between ‘Pan-Africanism’ as justification for Uganda’s role and ‘pan Islamism’ as defined by Sharia and other religious radicals inside Somalia and the broader Islamic world.

The stated intention of Uganda is to pacify Somalia. The interpretation of that intention by the extremist Islamists is violation of Islam inside Somalia. Because Islamic Sharia abhors secular authority, Uganda’s role is unwelcome, regardless of the good intention.

Matters are made worse by the fact that the TFG has a strong opposition from within Somalia. That opposition is both ‘clanic’ in nature and militant in outlook. The opposition has gained more legitimacy across Somalia and the Islamic world beyond because the TFG is seen as a foreign import more so by Ethiopia and the US. Uganda is, therefore, targeted because it is seen to be at the forefront of protecting an ‘illegitimate regime.

The resentment against Ugandan forces in AMISOM gains stronger support because opposition to it is marketed in terms of Somali nationalism. All groups — whether in opposition to each other or not —, do not want a foreign force inside Somalia. This has led to a convergence of forces against modern secular authority and emergence of inward nationalist extremism against foreign forces, current or in future. What sparked off the re-emergence of the Al Shabaab as a dominant force inside Somalia was the elections of Sheikh Sharif as the new president of the TFG in 2009.

As a former leader of the inner circle of the ICU, he was considered moderate and willing to talk. He has not talked the talk or walked the walk. His government is considered inept, his cabinet corrupt. He is viewed as an ally of foreign powers.

The new TFG president, therefore, faces the same crisis his predecessors faced. His former compatriot — Aweys — remains radical and is leading the Hisbul Islam, a militant group allied to the Al Shabaab.

The group questions the process that led to the election of Sharif in Djibouti. They question the role of former Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) of the UN Mohamoud Ould Abdallah.

They question the role of the EU, the US, the UK, Djibouti and Ethiopia. The split of the ARS and the exclusion of Aweys led to new dynamics. Aweys renewed contacts with the Al Shabaab and is a key figure behind the current wave of terrorist attacks.

The use of bombs targeting civilians is an old method of terrorism. They can not reach and satisfactorily kill the known enemy. They go where it hurts most and the victims are innocent civilians.